GRC Announcements

Dr. Christian Koch, Director of the GRC Foundation, participated in a workshop on “Iran-EU Relations in the aftermath of the Nuclear Deal” organized by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS, Brussels), the HH Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah Program of Durham University, and the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (Washington, DC). The event brought together policy officials from the EU and specialists on the topic. Sessions focused on the status of political and economic reform in Iran, EU-Iran energy cooperation, the regional security environment, as well as EU and US strategies towards Iran. Dr. Koch spoke at length in the regional security session on perspectives from the GCC states and the implications for a possible regional security architecture.

he massive majority recorded by the pro-separation side in the recent referendum in Southern Sudan raises important questions about the future of all parts of Sudan. Will the outstanding issues between North and South be resolved peacefully in time for Southern Sudan to achieve independence as envisaged in July? Will the Southern Sudan constitute a coherent and sustainable political entity? How will the orientation/politics of the northern Sudanese state be affected? Are the two states likely to maintain peaceful
and cordial relations?

For a long period of time, Oman was unknown to many people and only a small number of Western travellers managed to explore the country and record their visit and observations. Today Oman is celebrating 40 years of change and development that has touched every part of life and not least the intellectual thought.

This event attempts to shed light on the unknown Oman and highlight some ideas about this enchanting country.

Dr. Christian Koch spoke on the “Gulf States and Syria” at the international conference “How to Save Lives: The Concept of the Responsibility to Protect between desire and reality” sponsored by the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation and held in Berlin, Germany. The discussion took place within the panel on “5 Years of Civil war in Syria: Chances, Limits and Recommendations for a Political Solution” and featured, in addition to the perspective from the Arab Gulf States, those of Turkey and Germany. A discussion session followed the presentation under the participation of more than 50 participants.

After initial hopes of decoupling, the Global Financial Crisis has hurt countries in the Gulf considerably. Oil prices declined from record highs and budget surpluses turned into deficits. Financing conditions for domestic companies deteriorated, while the sovereign wealth funds of the region suffered tremendous losses. Furthermore, the eruption of Dubai’s debt crisis in December 2009 has cast a light on shortcomings in the business environment and raised questions about the viability of Islamic banking securities such as the Nakheel sukuk, which became a bone of contention.

The roundtable will gather distinguished academics and practitioners to take stock of the current situation in the Gulf and discuss future scenarios. After assessing the impact of the global financial crisis on the Gulf, a particular focus will be on implications for Islamic banking whose growth prospects have dimmed while a possible global leadership role of the Gulf in this niche industry has been compromised.

The election of a new President in the United States in November 2008 could profoundly impact the nature and direction of the US-GCC relationship. Given the stated national interest that the US has assigned to the security and stability of the Gulf region, the choices and decisions that are made in Washington are profoundly linked to the overall development of security relations among the Gulf littoral states. Under the US Bush administration, the ties between the GCC and the US have been affected in a number of ways, most of which have not been necessarily positive. On the one hand, there are the beginnings of a certain strategic divergence between the national security perceptions of the GCC states and the US with key countries like Saudi Arabia increasingly willing and able to promote policy directives that also stand in contrast to US objectives. This can in part be attributed to the growing maturity of the GCC states themselves who currently feel that due to high levels of regime security supported by tremendous economic development, they can afford to distance themselves from their larger protector to a certain degree. On the other hand, however, there is a clear recognition that the central role played by the US in the Gulf region will not shift dramatically overnight and that a US role in Gulf affairs will remain a present reality.

Given those parameters, it is proposed to organize a panel on the future outlook of US-GCC relations both as the US begins to take stock of its regional policy over the past 8 years and as the GCC begins to better define how to manage and develop its external relationship on both a regional and international level. The panel will look in depth at the different aspects of political, security, defense, economic and energy issues that play a central role on the US-GCC relationship and will identify the key areas in which an assessment of the current relationship might be necessary in order to re-build part of the strategic foundation on which bi-lateral ties have co-existed up to this point. The point that the next US presidential election will bring about a chance from the present administration makes such a panel an opportune moment to undertake this analysis.