Security issues in the Gulf region have been of critical importance to global stability over a prolonged period. Seldom, however, have they reached as critical a turning-point as they have now. Three factors account for their current salience. First, shifts in the demand for Gulf oil have transformed the Gulf ’s economic relationships with outside countries. Rapidly increasing demand from Asian countries (especially China and India), declining demand from the United States and a static level of demand from the European Union, have propelled China and India into the positions of the Gulf ’s first and third largest trading partners. Second, developments in the Middle Eastern region have posed destabilising challenges and threats to all of the Gulf countries. The challenges and threats have been both external to the Gulf region and within it (or, at least, with a reach which directly affects Gulf regimes): the ongoing conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Israel/Palestine in particular, and the nuclear issue in Iran. Finally, the shifting global balance of power, with China, India, and Russia (and to some extent the other two BRICS countries) pursuing more assertive foreign policies than before, the external presence in the Gulf becomes more open to debate and contest. Beyond the confines of the Gulf itself, moreover, there is the wider issue of control of the sea-lanes in the Indian Ocean, which are essential to the export of Gulf oil and the import of the critical needs of Gulf countries.
