The
five-day visit in January 2022 of the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain,
as well as the GCC Secretary General to China was unprecedented in
nature and explicitly portrays the growing strategic interests of the GCC and
China in extending and investing in their relationship. The meetings scheduled
covered a range of bilateral and regional issues, such as Chinese investments
in the region, regional economic diversification plans, as well as geopolitical
developments in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Iran. The talks also revitalized
the prospects of a GCC-China Free Trade Agreement, which started in 2004 but
have made little progress since then. A Free Trade Agreement between China and
the GCC is seen as significantly benefiting GCC economies in their various
economic initiatives as it will both open GCC products to the massive
opportunities available in the Chinese market and facilitate the import of
Chinese products such as technology required by GCC states for diversification.
Over the years, China
has gradually built and maintained relations across the Middle East by
increasing its strategic investments across the region. This includes a number
of diplomatic, political, and economic initiatives across the GCC. China’s
heavy reliance on the GCC for oil to fuel its economic development makes the
region of vital and strategic importance to the country. As of December 2021,
Saudi Arabia accounted for over 20% of Chinese oil imports and the GCC as a
whole and accounted for over 50% of total Chinese hydrocarbon imports. The
total value of GCC-China trade is over 190 billion USD. With China’s rise on
the world stage over the past decades, the relationship between the GCC and
China has developed to one of a comprehensive partnership based on energy and
economics. This is primarily due to their mutual interest in policy
initiatives, such as China’s Belt and Road Initiative and economic
diversification plans in the GCC. Through its Belt and Road initiative, China has
extended infrastructure developments throughout the GCC and Greater Middle East
region to establish logistics hubs and trade routes. Chinese construction firms have been instrumental to the development of
the New Capital in Egypt, further strengthening its position as a key contributor
of the development of the region.
Chinese economic interests in the region have
created a vested interest for China to ensure the stability and security of the
region. China has traditionally relied on the
United States to guarantee the overall security of Strait of Hurmuz and Bab Al
Mandab, which ensured the overall maritime security of the region. However, the
recalibration of U.S. involvement and withdrawal from the region has prompted
China to take a more active approach towards the region. As a result, China has developed its military
posture in the Red Sea in Djibouti and has portrayed an
interest in pursuing a base in Sudan. Additionally, China has increased its maritime
presence in the Arabian Gulf and the strait of Hormuz, to ensure the free flow
of oil stemming from the region towards China and to facilitate the export of
products from China to the international market.
In essence, the
current relationship between China and the GCC countries can still be defined
as one of a buyer and seller. However, there are also increasingly political
and military dimensions that have become part of the equation. The visit of the
foreign ministers to China demonstrates the growing relations between the GCC
countries and China, as Chinese diplomatic, security, economic, technological,
and political strength continue to expand. China has become a pivotal nation
and economy to the GCC economies in their quest for growth and diversification.
Additionally, China is beginning to portray a willingness to fill strategic
gaps when a U.S. option is not available. A recent CNN report indicated that China and Saudi Arabia
were working closely to develop Saudi’s ballistic missile capabilities given
the increased domestic opposition in the U.S. to the sale of arms to Saudi
Arabia.
Yet, despite the
expanding economic and strategic ties between China and the GCC, political
divergences exist between the two sides on regional issues, in particular as
far as Iran is concerned. Iran is a
pivotal and strategic partner to China and vice-versa as China is the largest
importer of Iranian oil. Additionally, Iran’s geographic proximity and access
to the Arabian Gulf makes it an indispensable nation to China’s Belt and Road
Initiative. Chinese citizens have visa-free access to Iran, which was approved
in 2019 as part of the nation’s broader strategy to encourage foreign direct
investment. In March 2021, Iran and China signed a 25- year cooperation
agreement that includes political, strategic and economic components. On the
other hand, GCC states, mainly Saudi Arabia are recipients of Iran’s malign regional
activity and expansionist agenda, which directly threatens the region’s overall
security.
The coordinated visit
of the Foreign Ministers of the GCC states to China therefore serves as an
important reflection point on the strength and potential of greater
collaboration between the two parties. At this stage, Saudi Arabia and the
broader GCC are ready to pursue their positive and practical bilateral
relations with China. Given the very real threat environment that the GCC
states find themselves in, their preferred partner continues to be the United
States. It will be interesting to see
whether this equation will shift in the near future.
*Ghassan Shams is
a Researcher at GRC
