The UK’s decision to leave the European Union (BREXIT) raises important questions
about the future trilateral and bilateral relationships of the UK, the EU, and the countries
of the Gulf. However, for the EU, a deteriorating geopolitical environment in the
Southern and Eastern neighbourhood, politico-security turbulence in regions at ‘strategic
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distance’ such as Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, and the Far East, the rise of
increasingly transnational challenges like terrorism, climate change, and cyber attacks,
and the very crisis of the European project itself, all led to a reflection on the old policies
and the adoption in June 2016 of "The EU Global Strategy for Foreign and Security
Policy". While the new pragmatic strategy departs somewhat from previous policies and
strategies, the UK’s withdrawal from the EU raises additional questions for future
relations with the Gulf and the MENA region. The GCC, on the other hand, while facing
multiple economic and security challenges is seriously considering the deepening of its
integration process and strengthening its strategic dialogues with global partners.
The workshop seeks to address these changing dynamics and examine the interconnected issues of trade and investment flows, cooperation on political and strategic
concerns, including counter-terrorism and other security issues. At a time of considerable
uncertainty in Europe – whether over migration, terrorism, rising populism and
continuing economic and financial difficulties – and uncertainties among Gulf states, as a
result of low oil prices and new challenges of demography, as well as the concerns raised
in both regions over external threats and challenges in the form of Russia and/or Iran –
BREXIT adds a further difficult and complicating dimension. On the other hand, there
may be opportunities presented by BREXIT as far as the GCC states are concerned. The
aim would therefore be to look at how these challenges and opportunities impact on the
countries of the Gulf and the UK and the EU of 27. A multitude of different actors,
official and unofficial, national and supranational/multilateral need to be considered. The
aim therefore would be to gain papers from different disciplines within academia as well
as contributions from officials and other stake-holders.
Existing relations between the UK, the EU and the Gulf is a complex series of bilateral
and multilateral relationships that cover the whole gamut of contemporary international
relations. While, for example, there is no trade agreement between the EU and the Gulf,
in many sectors, relations are determined by multilateral arrangements. On other
financial/investment areas, purely bilateral relations determine policy. On many security
issues, too, it is the bilateral relationship that is key. But all these will be directly or
indirectly affected by the UK’s decision to leave the EU. If triggering the formal exit
process waits on the UK decision in 2017, the relevant Treaty provision, Article 50,
contains a clause that requires both sides to take account ‘of the framework for its future
relationship with the Union’. That will clearly require some highly complex negotiation
on both sides. The Gulf States, are thus, on the one hand, left awaiting the outcome. On
the other hand, the British Trade Minister is already seeking new trade agreements for
when the UK actually leaves, which means the GCC countries have some influence on
the UK’s future economic and financial strength. In fact, the British Prime Minister,
Theresa May, attended the 37th GCC Summit in Bahrain on December 6-7, 2016. May
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became the first British leader and the first woman to attend the annual gathering of the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC); she also held meetings with the GCC leaders. The
British PM said that the UK must seek to “transform the way we do business” with the
region. She was also quoted as saying that “I hope my visit will herald the start of a new
chapter in relations between the United Kingdom and the Gulf — a true strategic
partnership that enables us to together seize the opportunities ahead and ensure the
security and prosperity of our people”.
But the economic position of the Gulf States has itself been undergoing change which
creates a new framework for any future UK or EU relationship. The fall in oil prices,
rising budgetary deficits, the growing sense of uncertainty over the outcome of focusing
on education, whether at university level at home or abroad, in terms of a better educated
pool of perhaps under- if not unemployed young people, with an ever larger number of
women among them create new demands on Gulf leaders. At the same time, these new
societal challenges are complemented by increasing concerns about the fallout from the
Arab Spring, especially perhaps from Syria and Iraq, with the threat of Al Qaeda replaced
by that of Da’esh or the on-going war in Yemen where GCC member states have been
directly involved. Greater involvement in external interventions has had internal and
external consequences. Competition and regional conflict especially with Iran amid
sectarian tension do not make the situation easier. And all this has been happening in a
world where social media has reduced the state’s ability to act as ‘gatekeeper’.
Moreover, future US policy will have many implications for both regions (Europe and the
Gulf) and will have an effect on shaping UK/EU-GCC relations. The Obama Doctrine
and the US policy of "pivot to Asia" raised a number of concerns in the GCC states that
feel encircled by Iran and abandoned by their strategic security partner. The untested
Trump Administration, although signalling a change from the Obama era, creates mixed
feelings in both the GCC and EU states and they remain perplexed, as do many other
states, about the future direction and policy orientation of the newly elected US
Administration.
Some of these issues are matched even if in different socio-economic circumstances by
concerns in the UK and elsewhere in Europe, whether in terms of the threat of extremism
and terrorism – including the threat posed by returnees from the conflicts in Syria and
Iraq – of migration and unemployment, and demographics – if Gulf concerns over
demographic changes, for example, relate to youth, those in the UK and EU relate more
to ageing population. And many see other existential threats – in Europe, a re-assertive
Russia, in the Gulf, a de-sanctioned Iran. Whereas the economic crisis in Europe may
have led to defense cuts, at a time when the UK and others have sometimes been looked
to take up the slack brought about by the US so-called ‘pivot’ to the Pacific and Trump's
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pre-election rhetoric about European defense and the role of NATO – not least by
continuing to provide arms despite the increased controversy of such sales in some UK
media – the prospect of BREXIT brings with it not simply economic uncertainties but a
possible inward-lookingness that reinforces a growing sense of ‘risk-aversion’ on the part
of the public and policy-makers and a wider more unpredictable populism. Besides, the
negotiations on BREXIT are so complex and wide ranging they are likely to distract
much of British attention, not least that of the Prime Minister.
The UK/EU-Gulf relationship takes place in other words within a highly complex
interconnected set of conditions made even more difficult and sensitive by BREXIT. The
aim of the workshop would therefore be to look at how these challenges impact on the
Gulf States as well as the UK and the EU of 27 and on their future relations. It is a project
that demands attention from different academic disciplines and calls for contributions
from officials and other stakeholders.