Generally, the proposed topics for in-depth analysis should concentrate on operational,
market, social or security challenges of the GCC’s oil and gas industry:
1. Operational Challenges
Historically, the GCC oil and gas industry held a major share of the global energy
supply potential and still contributes significantly to meet the global oil and gas
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demand. However, investments in supply and infrastructure technologies were
made a long time ago. Hence, on the one hand, currently implemented
installations are close to reaching their technical lifetime. On the other hand, the
exploitation of new energy fields and the more efficient exploitation of existing
fields require more advanced technologies. In particular, the more efficient
exploitation of detected and ongoing extraction fields becomes a key issue with
increasing competition in the international markets and consequently volatile
energy prices.
In addition, the oil and gas industry in the GCC suffers from a lack of skilled local
workforce. Therefore, it faces the challenge of educating local people and
attracting them to work domestically. The deficiency of foreign expertise forms
an additional challenge for the region’s oil and gas industry.
Moreover, the limited reserves of non-associated gas in many countries presents
the challenge of meeting domestic gas demand versus exporting gas to
international markets and thereby receiving monetary revenues. More precisely,
more GCC countries are expected to become gas importers due to the fast
increasing domestic demand, caused by a strong population growth rate. In this
respect, the oil and gas industry requires new business models which take into
account not only the domestic energy supply needs and the need for energy
exports in order to gain revenues for national welfare systems but also consider
unconventional energy supply systems, such as renewable energy technologies or
energy efficiency measures, in order to substitute domestic energy supply sources.
2. Market Challenges
The GCC oil and gas industry exports energy to global energy markets. Due to
their huge oil and gas resources which are comparatively easy and, thus, cost
competitive to exploit, the region has been acquiring significant revenues on
international energy markets. There, the regional market prices are a consequence
of demand and total supply plus a certain risk premium. In particular, the high
flexibility of LNG transport combined with the tremendous gas price differences
between several regional gas markets has provided high incomes for the GCC oil
and gas industry.
However, recent developments in the oil and gas sector present a future market
challenge for the GCC oil and gas industry. In particular, the fast-growing
development of unconventional oil and gas would turn potential oil and gas
importing countries into exporting countries, as for instance, the United States of
America. Consequently, the surplus of oil and gas on global energy markets
would have a significant impact on energy prices. Any steep decrease in energy
prices, caused by the competitiveness of many suppliers, would require the GCC
oil and gas industry to react in the short- as well as long-term time horizon.
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Additionally, the current very low price of CO2 combined with the fact of
decreasing coal price (as a result of the development of unconventional gas in the
US and therefore exported domestic coal resources) could lead to the substitution
of gas power plants by coal power plants in Europe. Consequently, this would
reduce the demand and lower the growth rate of gas demand even more.
3. Social Challenges
The oil and gas industry in the GCC is, to a large extent, publicly owned and thus
needs to represent the interests of its country. A large majority of these countries
rely heavily on the revenues from exported oil and gas in order to guarantee their
national welfare systems. Consequently, the GCC oil and gas industry faces the
challenge of keeping the petroleum prices on a quasi-constant, relatively-high
level.
A potential price decrease, caused by increased competition or energy surpluses
from unconventional sources, would trigger major financial and political crises in
the region. In contrast, a rapid increase of petroleum prices, due to certain (OPEC)
regulations or other limitation of energy supply, could call for technology
substitution and, therefore, reduce the demand for petroleum in the long term.
4. Security Challenges
The transport of oil and gas exports from the GCC region stipulates a future
challenge for the whole industry. The region’s geographical situation requires
almost all energy exports to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, the physical
bottleneck along with the frequent traffic holds a potential risk of accidents. Any
conflict in this region would cause those exports to totally stop and thus have
significant impact on the global energy markets as well as on the GCC revenue
streams and welfare systems.
Hence, the national state-owned oil and gas industries are forced to develop
common infrastructure projects in order to guarantee different possibilities for
exporting their energy. This requires common understanding, financing,
construction and operation.