Five years after the Arab uprisings, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have
developed an increasingly active posture in their foreign policies towards the Middle East
and North Africa (MENA) region. The strategic shifts caused by the wave of popular
unrest that swept the region from the end of 2010 revealed the increasing importance of
the GCC countries’ foreign policies in influencing the changes taking place in a number
of countries, as in the case of Syria, as well as in restructuring or redefining the matrix of
regional roles and alliances among the international powers that are interested in the
region, such as the United States, Russia, Iran and some European countries.
These developments prompted many academics and policy makers to argue that the
center of gravity in the MENA is shifting towards the Gulf region, namely towards Saudi
Arabia and Iran, the old regional contenders, and new players (the UAE, Qatar, and
Oman). Since the middle of the twentieth century, the main actors in the region were
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iraq, constituting a regional order that was deeply
influenced by the Cold War. The occupation of Iraq since 2003, the ongoing armed
conflict in Syria, the unraveling of the transition in Egypt since the fall of the Mubarak
regime, and the civil war in Libya, coupled with changing priorities of the Obama
administration in the region, have left a vacuum of power that other Gulf countries aspire
to fill.
There are two main aspects connected to the increasing activism of the GCC countries in
the MENA region against the backdrop of changing global and regional dynamics. The
first one concerns the domestic and regional dimensions: the increasing activism of small
countries, namely Qatar, the UAE, and Oman, seems to be a direct consequence of the
shifts caused by the Arab uprisings, as well as of the willingness to capitalize on the
wealth these countries have accumulated and the broad network of relations they have
developed with western policy and academic circles. Notwithstanding crucial differences
in the three countries’ attitudes, their increased regional clout limits the opportunities left
for Saudi Arabia to play the role of the regional hegemon. Saudi Arabia was traditionally
considered the main pillar of the Gulf security architecture as well as the most powerful
factor legitimizing the stability-oriented policies pursued by the United States in the
region. At the same time, it opens spaces for competition and rivalry among the Gulf
countries, which ultimately impinges on the prospects for development of the GCC as a
regional organization. Besides, Saudi Arabia itself is witnessing a shift in its foreign
policy, in terms of becoming increasingly interventionist and favoring the use of military
means to influence political change in neighboring countries. This was evident in the case
of the direct Saudi intervention in Bahrain in February 2011 and in Yemen in 2015, as
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well as in the support lent to local opposition groups in Syria. These shifts in the
domestic and regional contexts raise the question of whether Saudi Arabia will continue
to pursue a strategy of omnibalancing by engaging in a form of power balancing at the
domestic and international levels simultaneously. As argued by some authors, Saudi
Arabia is increasingly attempting to “carve out and maintain a measure of relative
autonomy” in its external projection (Aarts and Nonneman 2005: 319).
The second aspect relates to the international relations of the GCC countries. Indeed, it is
possible to speak of an increased ‘pragmatism’ of the GCC countries’ foreign policies
with regard to other regional and global powers. This pragmatic attitude is driven by their
national interests and security needs (for example vis-à-vis Iran), as well as by the need to
diversify their foreign relations to other players, such as Russia, the European countries,
and Turkey. Historically, the United States used to be the main international player in the
Gulf region and the GCC countries were its loyal allies despite tensions that arose from
time to time. It can be argued that the shifts caused by the Arab uprisings are defining
new rules of the game for the relationship between the United States and the GCC
countries, which reflects, on the one hand, in the shifting American priorities regarding
its policies towards the Gulf and the MENA in general and, on the other hand, the
changing security perceptions of the GCC countries themselves. This development
challenges the findings of Korany and Dessouki when they surveyed the literature on the
foreign policies of developing countries and small states and qualified it as neither
purposeful nor independent (Korany and Dessouki 1991).
Based on this background, this workshop examines the foreign policies of the GCC
countries five years after the Arab uprisings in terms of drivers, policies, and outcomes,
paying particular attention to the MENA region, Iran, and the international powers. This
examination will not only focus on current affairs, but will also contribute to establishing
a productive link between empirical studies and the existing theoretical frameworks that
focus on the foreign policy of small states or of candidate regional powers. All in all, this
will shed light on and provide a more solid understanding of how regional powers like
Saudi Arabia as well as other smaller Gulf states act and pursue their interests in an
environment full of uncertainty, against the backdrop of changing regional and global
dynamics and power distribution.