Climate change poses a significant challenge for countries around the world. The latest IPCC

AR6 Synthesis Report suggests that implementing current climate policies will result in

projected emissions that lead to warming of 3.2°C, with a range of 2.2°C to 3.5°C (medium

confidence). Most recently, the UNFCCC Synthesis Report of the Technical Dialogue of the

first Global Stocktake, released in September 2023, ahead of COP28 highlighted how global

temperatures will rise by 2.4-2.6°C by the end of the century based on current national

climate action plans, and called for phasing out unabated fossil fuels if we are to keep the

global temperature below 1.5°C within reach. The Gulf countries – the six Arab Gulf states,

Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as well

as Iran and Iraq, historically known for oil and gas, are increasingly confronted with the

environmental, economic and political challenges of climate change. With an already hot,

arid, and semi-arid climate, the region is heating up at double the rate of the rest of the

world, and already struggling with water scarcity, food security, sea level rise and increasing

frequency and intensity of extreme weather events especially sandstorms and tropical

cyclones. Climate change is also becoming a core driver for geopolitical tensions and

insecurity, widening the disparities between resource rich and poor countries in the region.

The dilemma faced by the Gulf countries is how to prepare for an oil-free future in a context

in which hydrocarbon wealth has made them some of the world’s wealthiest nations (in per

capita terms) in just a few decades and supported a social contract necessary for continuing

regime legitimacy. This oil wealth has also helped the Gulf nations to adapt to the severe

impacts of climate change including through food imports and the deployment of cooling

and water desalination technologies. Aware of the volatility of the oil market, and the

looming global energy transition where the production and consumption of fossil fuels is

reduced, with an anticipated decline in hydrocarbon revenues, the Gulf countries have put

efforts into diversifying their economies and developing alternative sources of income

including through the expansion of hydrocarbon downstream industries, investments in

alternative energy resources such as renewables and hydrogen, tourism, space, sports, ports

and logistics, mega-projects, and knowledge-based economy. Most of the economic

diversification efforts however remain heavily reliant on oil rent. Without oil revenues, and

with intensifying climate challenges, the future of the Gulf economies is threatened, posing

significant socio-economic and political costs. Therefore, it is imperative to explore the

interlinkages between efforts to address climate change and the region’s strategic interest in

fossil fuels.